Liquidity still slowing, but policy makers lately intervened: Fed RMP + Treasury buybacks added US$600bn to money markets since October, temporarily reflating tech and crypto. This is band-aid support, not a new cycle. ‘True’ signals are ‘Risk Off’ Yield curve flattening is a strong ‘Risk Off’ signal: 10-2-year spreads and the SOFR-2y spread both point … Read More

Black Swans Vs Blue Owls • Declining Global Liquidity Signals ‘Risk Off’ Shift: The Global Liquidity Index (GLI ) has peaked and entered a downswing, pushing market conditions towards a ‘Risk Off’ environment. This systemic downturn, rather than the oil spike alone, is the primary force eroding portfolio performance and explains growing stresses in private … Read More

Global Liquidity Has Turned Lower: The End of Easy Money? Three narratives dominate markets: (1) the impact of presumptive Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; (2) the ‘Great Debasement’ trade and (3) Asian capital flows vis-à-vis gold, the US dollar and global bonds. We consider the first is at best neutral for risk markets; the second is … Read More

Warning, There Is No Debasement Trade What will dominate in 2026: trend or cycle? In bull markets investors see only positive structural trends; in bear markets they are unexpectedly skewered by downward cycles. There are clear trends in markets today, such as the widely popular ‘Great Debasement’ trade, but we fear that they will be … Read More