Global Liquidity has peaked and is now turning lower, pushing markets into a late-cycle phase where volatility is likely to rise, policy must tighten and asset allocation should become more defensive. China is the key exception, with PBoC reflation supporting gold prices and potentially Chinese assets, while fiscal strain and Treasury-led monetisation across the Advanced … Read More

Despite slightly firmer liquidity data in May, driven largely by the US, the broader picture still points to World financial markets sitting late in the Speculation quadrant. This regime is typically associated with low returns and high volatility, making it a time to reduce risk exposure. Cycles matter: the 5–6-year Global Liquidity cycle has peaked … Read More

Don’t BTFD • The Global Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3 2025 and is not slated to bottom before 2027. We have pared back risk exposure, as the underlying currents driving liquidity lower will ultimately dominate geopolitical twists and turns • The Iran conflict’s impact on economies is significant but so far manageable (roughly ½–¾% point … Read More

Black Swans Vs Blue Owls • Declining Global Liquidity Signals ‘Risk Off’ Shift: The Global Liquidity Index (GLI ) has peaked and entered a downswing, pushing market conditions towards a ‘Risk Off’ environment. This systemic downturn, rather than the oil spike alone, is the primary force eroding portfolio performance and explains growing stresses in private … Read More

Global Liquidity Has Turned Lower: The End of Easy Money? Three narratives dominate markets: (1) the impact of presumptive Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; (2) the ‘Great Debasement’ trade and (3) Asian capital flows vis-à-vis gold, the US dollar and global bonds. We consider the first is at best neutral for risk markets; the second is … Read More