Don’t BTFD • The Global Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3 2025 and is not slated to bottom before 2027. We have pared back risk exposure, as the underlying currents driving liquidity lower will ultimately dominate geopolitical twists and turns • The Iran conflict’s impact on economies is significant but so far manageable (roughly ½–¾% point … Read More

Black Swans Vs Blue Owls • Declining Global Liquidity Signals ‘Risk Off’ Shift: The Global Liquidity Index (GLI ) has peaked and entered a downswing, pushing market conditions towards a ‘Risk Off’ environment. This systemic downturn, rather than the oil spike alone, is the primary force eroding portfolio performance and explains growing stresses in private … Read More

Global Liquidity Has Turned Lower: The End of Easy Money? Three narratives dominate markets: (1) the impact of presumptive Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; (2) the ‘Great Debasement’ trade and (3) Asian capital flows vis-à-vis gold, the US dollar and global bonds. We consider the first is at best neutral for risk markets; the second is … Read More