Liquidity still slowing, but policy makers lately intervened: Fed RMP + Treasury buybacks added US$600bn to money markets since October, temporarily reflating tech and crypto. This is band-aid support, not a new cycle. ‘True’ signals are ‘Risk Off’ Yield curve flattening is a strong ‘Risk Off’ signal: 10-2-year spreads and the SOFR-2y spread both point … Read More

Don’t BTFD • The Global Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3 2025 and is not slated to bottom before 2027. We have pared back risk exposure, as the underlying currents driving liquidity lower will ultimately dominate geopolitical twists and turns • The Iran conflict’s impact on economies is significant but so far manageable (roughly ½–¾% point … Read More

The Turning Point? The World is shifting toward a multipolar system defined by US-China rivalry, regional blocs, and tightening Global Liquidity. This will lead to a more challenging ‘Risk Off’ environment for financial markets in 2026. Our overarching theme is the battle for capital and currency supremacy between the US and China, leading to a … Read More